Tancredo as harbinger of 2012?

If you want to see one scenario of 2012, take a look at Colorado's governor's race. Recently, Sarah Palin and Rush Limbaugh have been hinting at the possibility of a third-party challenge if the Republicans don't fully embrace the Tea Party platform of slashing the federal budget, security the borders and rolling back the Obama agenda. Many Democrats are positively gleeful at the prospect. Many Republicans believe it unthinkable. 

But is it impossible? The Republican and Democratic parties being the two major parties in America are not set in stone, nor in the Constitution. Parties have a natural life span. Now the Tea Party is an ally of the Republicans, but they are a fickle and independent bunch. They don't trust the Republican party apparatus and have no qualms about targeting moderate Republicans. Just ask Spector, Crist and Murkowski, who all showed their party loyalty by running against the GOP as soon as they lost a primary (or were about to).

And perhaps the Democrats should contain their glee. Consider Tom Tancredo. Long derided as part of the lunatic fringe, Tancredo is running as the Constitution Party candidate against Republican Dan Maes and Democrat John Hickenlooper. So, how is this xenophobic, tea-party fueled, third-party candidate doing? Well, he's winning. 

Okay, not quite winning, but he is out-polling the Republican candidate by an astonishing 39 points, according to the latest PPP poll.  And the Dems lead is within the margin of error. In the three months since Tancredo started his candidacy, polling has gone from an even split of 24%-24% between Maes and Tancredo to a steady fall for Maes. In July there were cries for Tancredo to step down, lest he deliver the governorship to the Democrats. Of course, now that the spoiler role might go to Maes (who may get 5% of the vote), few are calling for him to end his candidacy. 

And Colorado is no deep Red state. It went for Obama over McCain by 9 points in 2008. Further, it is 20% Hispanic and might have the highest profile anti-illegal immigration advocate as its governor. 

What's the lesson here? First, this must be seen in the context of all the other candidates who are considered "too conservative"  to win from Brown in Massachusetts to Fiorina in California. The term "unelectable" is all but meaningless in this time of flux and uncertainty. Second, Republicans cannot engage in business as usual, selecting candidates based on seniority or ability to compromise. Finally, we can see that a major party can collapse in the blink of an eye. Party loyalties are weaker than ever and party affiliation is down. Only 60% of Americans identify with one of the two major parties. 58% of Americans think that a third major party is needed. Colorado shows that if the Republicans try to put forth flawed and uncompelling candidates, voters will not simply roll over. 

Palin-Limbaugh 2012 for the Tea Party? It could be reality, if the GOP doesn't watch out. Worse for the Democrats, they could win, if they don't take them seriously. Just ask Tom Tancredo.